Predicting Suicide Risk

More than 41,000 Americans commit suicide each year. That’s more than twice the number killed annually by homicide. Most people who end their own lives have a mental disorder such as depression, schizophrenia, or bipolar disorder.

Researchers have been seeking a way to objectively measure a person’s risk for suicide. Image Credit: Katarzyna Bialasiewicz/iStock/Thinkstock.

Efforts to reduce suicides have focused on identifying and treating those at risk. However, asking people if they’re suicidal isn’t always a reliable approach. Finding a way to objectively measure a person’s risk for suicide is thus an important area of research. Some researchers are developing questionnaires that measure the likelihood of someone committing suicide. Others are looking for biological markers of people who are suicidal.

A study led by researchers at Indiana University School of Medicine combined these approaches. Their work was funded by an NIH Director’s New Innovator Award and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. Results appeared online in Molecular Psychiatry on August 18, 2015.

The researchers studied 217 male psychiatric patients at the Indianapolis VA Medical Center during multiple visits several months apart. The scientists measured the men’s thoughts of suicide through extensive interviews and took blood samples. They identified 37 patients whose thoughts of suicide increased between visits. Those patients’ blood samples were analyzed to find genes with changes in activity, or expression, between visits. Those genes were ranked based on prior research linking them to suicide risk. The researchers then measured the expression of these top-ranked genes in blood samples from 26 men who had committed suicide.

The team also developed 2 apps that use questionnaires to measure risk factors for suicide. The first collects details on a patient's’ emotional state. The second asks about factors known to influence suicide risk, such as life events, stress, and mental health. Both could predict thoughts of suicide more than 85% of the time. These questionnaires were then combined with the most predictive gene biomarkers to create a universal predictive measure called UP-Suicide.

The team tested UP-Suicide in a separate group of 108 psychiatric patients to examine its ability to predict thoughts of suicide and a group of 157 patients to examine ability to predict future hospitalizations. The tool predicted which patients would go on to have serious suicidal thoughts with 92% accuracy. It also predicted with 71% accuracy which patients would be hospitalized for suicidal behaviors in the year following testing. The tool was even more accurate for patients with bipolar disorder, with 98% and 94% accuracy, respectively.

“We believe that widespread adoption of risk prediction tests based on these findings during health care assessments will enable clinicians to intervene with lifestyle changes or treatments that can save lives,” says lead researcher Dr. Alexander B. Niculescu.

Because the team studied only male psychiatric patients, further research will be needed to understand how well this approach can predict suicidal thoughts and behaviors in other populations, such as women and those who aren’t psychiatric patients.

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Popular Soda Ingredient Ups Cancer Risk  Public health researchers have analyzed soda consumption data in order to characterize people's exposure to a potentially carcinogenic by product of some types of caramel color. Caramel color is a common ingredient in colas and other dark soft drinks. Continue Reading

Milk proteins show promise in prevention and treatment of cancer  In a review of existing research, a team of Australian researchers found that milk proteins, consisting of short sequences called peptides, are potential candidates for the development of anticancer agents and can be generated by enzymatic action, such as those experienced during digestion or food processing, including fermentation. Their findings are in the recent issue of … Continue Reading

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Promising drug target in certain breast and ovarian cancers Scientists indicate that the pool of patients who can benefit from the drug olaparib is potentially much wider – and offers a ready means of identifying them. Continue Reading

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11/25/14 Health News: Drink will reduce your cancer risk ♦ Untapped source of antibiotic drugs ♦ Personalized vaccines ♦ Longer work hours for moms means obesity for preschoolers

This drink will substantially reduce your cancer risk

Attention, ladies: Science says it’s time to put the kettle on. A new study in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition found that women who consumed the most flavonoids, a type of antioxidant abundant in tea, were significantly less likely to develop endothelial ovarian cancer—the fifth leading cause of cancer death among women.  Continue Reading

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Common Gene Variants Account for Most Genetic Risk for Autism

Most of the genetic risk for autism comes from versions of genes that are common in the population rather than from rare variants or spontaneous glitches, researchers funded by the National Institutes of Health have found. Heritability also outweighed other risk factors in this largest study of its kind to date.About 52 percent of the risk for autism was traced to common and rare inherited variation, with spontaneous mutations contributing a modest 2.6 percent of the total risk.

The bulk of risk, or liability, for autism spectrum disorders (ASD) was traced to inherited variations in the genetic code shared by many people. These and other (unaccounted) factors dwarfed contributions from rare inherited, non-additive and spontaneous (de novo) genetic factors. Source: Population-Based Autism Genetics and Environment Study

“Genetic variation likely accounts for roughly 60 percent of the liability for autism, with common variants comprising the bulk of its genetic architecture,” explained Joseph Buxbaum, Ph.D., of the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai (ISMMS), New York City. “Although each exerts just a tiny effect individually, these common variations in the genetic code add up to substantial impact, taken together.”

Buxbaum, and colleagues of the Population-Based Autism Genetics and Environment Study (PAGES) Consortium, report on their findings in a unique Swedish sample in the journal Nature Genetics, July 20, 2014.

“Thanks to the boost in statistical power that comes with ample sample size, autism geneticists can now detect common as well as rare genetic variation associated with risk,” said Thomas R. Insel, M.D., director of the NIH’s National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH). “Knowing the nature of the genetic risk will reveal clues to the molecular roots of the disorder. Common variation may be more important than we thought.”

Although autism is thought to be caused by an interplay of genetic and other factors, including environmental, consensus on their relative contributions and the outlines of its genetic architecture has remained elusive. Recently, evidence has been mounting that genomes of people with autism are prone to harboring rare mutations, often spontaneous, that exert strong effects and can largely account for particular cases of disease.

More challenging is to gauge the collective impact on autism risk of numerous variations in the genetic code shared by most people, which are individually much subtler in effect. Limitations of sample size and composition made it difficult to detect these effects and to estimate the relative influence of such common, rare inherited, and rare spontaneous variation.

Differences in methods and statistical models also resulted in sometimes wildly discrepant estimates of autism’s heritability – ranging from 17 to 50 percent.

Meanwhile, recent genome-wide studies of schizophrenia have achieved large enough sample sizes to reveal involvement of well over 100 common gene variants in that disorder. These promise improved understanding of the underlying biology – and even development of risk-scores, which could help predict who might benefit from early interventions to nip psychotic episodes in the bud.

With their new study, autism genetics is beginning to catch up, say the researchers. It was made possible by Sweden’s universal health registry, which allowed investigators to compare a very large sample of about 3,000 people with autism with matched controls. Researchers also brought to bear new statistical methods that allowed them to more reliably sort out the heritability of the disorder. In addition, they were able to compare their results with a parallel study in 1.6 million Swedish families, which took into account data from twins and cousins, and factors like age of the father at birth and parents’ psychiatric history. A best-fit statistical model took form, based mostly on combined effects of multiple genes and non-shared environmental factors.

“This is a different kind of analysis than employed in previous studies,” explained Thomas Lehner, Ph.D., chief of NIMH’s Genomics Research Branch. “Data from genome-wide association studies was used to identify a genetic model instead of focusing just on pinpointing genetic risk factors. The researchers were able to pick from all of the cases of illness within a population-based registry.”

Now that the genetic architecture is better understood, the researchers are identifying specific genetic risk factors detected in the sample, such as deletions and duplications of genetic material and spontaneous mutations. Even though such rare spontaneous mutations accounted for only a small fraction of autism risk, the potentially large effects of these glitches makes them important clues to understanding the molecular underpinnings of the disorder, say the researchers.

“Within a given family, the mutations could be a critical determinant that leads to the manifestation of ASD in a particular family member,” said Buxbaum. “The family may have common variation that puts it at risk, but if there is also a de novo [spontaneous} mutation on top of that, it could push an individual over the edge. So for many families, the interplay between common and spontaneous genetic factors could be the underlying genetic architecture of the disorder.”

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New Software Tells Food Companies Risk from Recalls

Insurance Company, American International Group (AIG) today launched NOVI, a web-based service to help companies estimate the cost of recall incidents, and expanded its available accidental contamination coverage limits to $35 million.

In the Insurance Journal they said “On average, 30 class I and II product recalls occur every week in the food and beverage industry in the United States, and another 22 equivalent recalls are reported in Europe, according to AIG analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the European Union Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed’

This figure may be a little misleading because some companies will recall numerous products An example Peanut Company of America products were in over 3500 foods in the following categories- Brownie , Cake and Pie , Candy Product, Cereal , Cookie , Cracker, Donut , Dressing and Seasoning, Fruit and Vegetable, Ice Cream, Peanut, Peanut Butter, Peanut Paste,

Pet Food, Pre-Packaged Meals, Snack Bar, Snack and Snack Mix, Topping. One recall like this can esque the results. In the average there are less than 10 recalls in the United States some of which will have multiple items recalled.

Expenses resulting from a  recall can include replacement and destruction costs and lost profit from plant shutdowns, government intervention, and brand damage.

AIG’s NOVI is a web-based service that provides food and beverage companies an estimate of their probable maximum recall loss in the event of an accidental contamination. The estimate uses more than 80 data points and a proprietary methodology based on AIG’s more than 25 years of contaminated product insurance experience, analysis of thousands of recall incidents, and input from food safety consultant, NSF International.

Novi helps food and beverage manufacturers make more informed decisions about how to manage their risk,” said Nicky Alexandru, vice president of Crisis Management, Global Casualty, AIG Property Casualty. Companies are unsure of the potential magnitude of financial impact from a recall. As is the case with Peanut Company of America a recall can force a company into bankruptcy.